Nat-Gas Prices Slightly Higher as Near-Term Weather Forecasts Turn Colder

Group 1: Natural Gas Prices - December Nymex natural gas closed up by +0.010 (+0.23%) after recovering from a 1.5-week low, influenced by colder weather forecasts for the central and eastern US, which may increase heating demand [1] - Prices initially declined due to warmer long-term temperature forecasts for the period of November 28-December 2 [1] Group 2: Production and Demand - The EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US natural gas production by +1.0% to 107.67 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) from the previous estimate of 106.60 bcf/day, with current production near record highs [2] - US (lower-48) dry gas production was reported at 108.7 bcf/day (+5.8% year-over-year), while gas demand was 87.3 bcf/day (+14.1% year-over-year) [3] Group 3: LNG and Electricity Output - Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals were 17.1 bcf/day (-4.6% week-over-week) [3] - US electricity output for the week ending November 8 rose by +0.12% year-over-year to 73,383 GWh, with a 52-week output increase of +2.84% year-over-year to 4,282,302 GWh [4] Group 4: Inventory Levels - Natural gas inventories for the week ended November 7 increased by +45 bcf, exceeding market consensus of +34 bcf and the 5-year weekly average of +35 bcf, indicating adequate supplies [5] - As of November 12, European gas storage was 82% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 91% [5] Group 5: Drilling Activity - The number of active US natural gas drilling rigs fell by -3 to 125 rigs for the week ending November 14, down from a 2.25-year high of 128 rigs on November 7 [6]