国内累库增加 预计棕榈油阶段性见底概率偏大

Market Overview - As of November 19, the CNF price for 24-degree palm oil imports for December and January is reported at $1060/ton and $1080/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of $10 to $22/ton [1] - Malaysia's MENTIGA CORPORATION reported October crude palm oil production at 999.11 million tons, fresh fruit bunch production at 5157.34 million tons, and palm kernel production at 239.82 million tons [1] - On November 19, the national port transaction volume for 24-degree palm oil was 800 tons, a decrease of 33.33% compared to the previous trading day [1] Institutional Insights - Donghai Futures noted that palm oil futures on the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) continued to rise, supported by the strength in soybean oil. However, concerns over demand and a stronger ringgit have led to palm oil prices retreating from intraday highs. Domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, putting pressure on spot prices, and a wide fluctuation in palm oil prices is expected in the short term [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures highlighted that the U.S. diesel market is experiencing lower-than-average production but strong exports and domestic demand, leading to a tight supply-demand balance. This situation is expected to have a marginal spillover effect on vegetable oils. The recent strength in international soybean oil prices has also influenced palm oil, which is following the upward trend. However, short-term supply-demand indicators for palm oil in Malaysia appear weak. Domestic soybean crushing margins remain poor, with soybean oil outperforming soybean meal. The market is closely watching potential changes in U.S. biodiesel policies, which could lead to an improvement in palm oil margins and a higher probability of a bottoming phase for palm oil prices [3]