样本港口库存量连续两周累库 纸浆短期有所回调

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for pulp is experiencing a downward trend, with significant fluctuations in prices and inventory levels indicating a bearish outlook for the near future [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 20, the main contract for pulp futures opened at 5400.00 CNY/ton, with a price fluctuation range between 5402.00 CNY and 5288.00 CNY, resulting in a decline of approximately 2.25% [1]. - As of November 19, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 198,400 contracts in long positions and 208,400 contracts in short positions, leading to a long-to-short ratio of 0.95 and a net position of -10,000 contracts, which increased by 1,111 contracts from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Inventory Levels - As of November 20, 2025, the inventory level at major Chinese pulp ports was recorded at 2.173 million tons, reflecting an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, marking a 3.0% rise and indicating a continuous accumulation trend over the past two weeks [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in warehouse receipts for pulp futures to 205,216 tons, down by 8,067 tons from the previous trading day, while factory warehouse receipts remained stable at 6,000 tons [1]. Group 3: Market Outlook - New Century Futures noted that the current market prices are stable, with needle pulp prices dropping by $20 to $680/ton and broadleaf pulp prices rising by $20 to $540/ton, suggesting weakened cost support for pulp prices [1]. - The paper industry is facing low profitability and high inventory pressure, leading to poor demand for high-priced pulp, as paper mills are primarily purchasing raw materials based on essential needs, which is bearish for pulp prices [1]. - Xinhuh Futures indicated that the recent price increase is primarily due to concerns over insufficient warehouse receipts for the January contract, but current prices are nearing those of high-quality brands outside of Russia, which may limit further price increases amid weakening macroeconomic sentiment [2].