财政纪律见效？穆迪拟23年来首度上调意大利主权信用评级

Core Viewpoint - Moody's Investors Service is set to review Italy's sovereign credit rating on November 22, potentially marking the first upgrade in nearly 23 years, with the last upgrade occurring in May 2002 [1] Group 1: Current Rating and Outlook - Moody's currently rates Italy at Baa3, the lowest tier of investment grade, and upgraded the outlook from "stable" to "positive" in May 2023 due to stronger-than-expected fiscal performance and a more stable political environment [1] - The Italian government has revised its budget deficit target for 2025 down to 3% of GDP, a year earlier than previously planned, signaling enhanced fiscal sustainability [1] Group 2: Debt and Fiscal Measures - Italy's public debt remains high, projected to reach €3.05 trillion by the end of 2024, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 134.9%, the second highest in the Eurozone after Greece [3] - The government is implementing measures to alleviate debt pressure, including securing approximately €200 billion in low-cost long-term funding for infrastructure, green transition, and digital reforms [3] - Interest payments on government debt are expected to account for 3.9% of GDP in 2025, down from 6.8% in 2023, but still represent a significant fiscal burden [3] Group 3: Economic Growth and Risks - Despite improvements in Italy's economic outlook, growth remains sluggish, with GDP growth expected to be only 1.2% in 2025 [4] - Potential U.S. tariff policies could negatively impact Italian exports, potentially leading to a 0.5% loss in GDP by 2026 [4] - Long-term interest rates are under upward pressure, which may increase refinancing costs for Italian government debt, exacerbating the debt burden [4]