应对气变的全球战线仍坚强存在

Core Points - The COP30 conference is taking place in Belem, Brazil, marking the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, amidst a dual crisis of climate change and geopolitical tensions [1] - The absence of the U.S. government at the conference is seen as a significant setback, impacting the willingness of other countries to contribute to climate financing and emissions reduction [1] - Despite the challenges, the majority of the 198 parties to the Convention remain committed to multilateralism as the primary approach to addressing climate change [2] Group 1 - The conference is significant as it coincides with the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement and is held in Brazil, the original signing location of the Convention [1] - The year 2024 is projected to be the hottest on record, surpassing the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement, with only about 125 parties having submitted their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) [1] - The U.S. absence is viewed as a "systematic obstruction" to multilateral climate mechanisms, affecting global emissions reduction efforts [1] Group 2 - The participation rate at COP30 indicates a strong belief in multilateralism, with only four countries absent, showing that approximately 98% of sovereign entities still view the UN as an essential platform for cooperation [2] - Despite the federal absence, U.S. states like California and New Mexico are participating through the "U.S. Climate Alliance," reaffirming their commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% from 2005 levels by 2030 [2] - Research suggests that local governments and private organizations in the U.S. may come close to achieving the Biden administration's emissions reduction targets by 2030, despite federal non-participation [2] Group 3 - Technological advancements and market trends indicate that renewable energy will surpass coal as the primary source of global electricity generation by 2025, driven by collaborative efforts from various parties, particularly China and the EU [3] - The global carbon emissions growth rate has significantly slowed from an average of 1.7% per year (2005-2014) to 0.3% per year (2015-2024), demonstrating the effectiveness of climate change mitigation efforts [3] - The ongoing submission of updated NDCs by various parties reflects a commitment to climate action, with the UN emphasizing that the direction of emissions reduction is more important than the speed [3]