瑞银调研14家中国半导体公司：晶圆制造设备商们最乐观

Core Insights - UBS's recent survey indicates a significant demand divergence in the Chinese semiconductor industry by 2026, with strong growth expected in semiconductor equipment, AI infrastructure, and autonomous driving, while smartphone-related sectors face short-term pressures [1][3] Semiconductor Equipment Demand - The semiconductor equipment supply chain shows optimistic demand forecasts, with a projected year-on-year growth of 8%-10% for 2026, driven by capacity expansions from Yangtze Memory Technologies and ChangXin Memory [5][9] - Domestic storage chip clients are expected to place formal orders soon, indicating a robust demand outlook [3][5] Industry Challenges - IC companies without wafer fabs and mature process foundries may experience demand declines or specification downgrades due to rising storage costs in the smartphone sector [3][9] - The trend of wafer fab clients expanding their supplier base may pressure existing suppliers to lower prices, potentially impacting long-term gross margins [9] Key Company Developments - North Huachuang is confident in outperforming industry averages, with optimistic progress in CCP etching equipment, aiming to fully replace Applied Materials in metal deposition [7] - Huahai QK is expanding its product portfolio from CMP equipment to include grinding, polishing, ion implantation, and wafer inspection, anticipating growth in material removal equipment due to advanced packaging technologies [7] - Jingyi Automation has achieved a market share of 90%-100% for its core products in leading domestic wafer fabs, with increasing demand for ultra-low temperature cooling machines [7] Foundry Capacity and Technology - ChangXin Memory expects high capacity utilization rates through Q4 2025, with a slight seasonal decline in Q1 2026, while facing pricing pressures in the smartphone-related CIS and DDIC sectors [11] - Yuexin Semiconductor's 6-inch production line is operating at full capacity, while its 8-inch line is at 70%-80% utilization, focusing on power discrete devices [12] IC Product Expansion - Horizon Robotics is expanding from consumer electronics to high-growth sectors, with its high-end autonomous driving solutions being adopted by multiple OEMs [14] - Nanchip Technology is leveraging its consumer electronics foundation to expand into automotive, AI, and industrial sectors, aiming for a significant increase in domestic market share by 2030 [14] Backend Testing Growth - Backend testing is experiencing explosive growth driven by AI demand, with leading companies like Huafeng Testing and Visonic Testing seeing strong order growth and technological advancements [17] Display and Optical Modules - BOE expects slight growth in LCD panel shipments and area in 2025, with a strong performance in the Latin American market [19] - The domestic optical module market is projected to see significant growth, with an expected shipment of 15-16 million units in 2025, increasing to 20 million in 2026 [20][21]