日本长期债券遭抛售！日元套利交易若反转，恐殃及全球流动性

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a $110 billion fiscal stimulus plan by the Japanese government has led to a significant sell-off of long-term Japanese bonds, resulting in the highest yields since the 2008 financial crisis, which may trigger a reversal of approximately $20 trillion in yen carry trades, posing a threat to global risk assets [1][3][6]. Group 1: Japanese Bond Market Reaction - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 1.78%, the highest level since June 2008, while the 30-year yield reached a historic high of 3.35% [3]. - A proposal for a supplementary budget exceeding 25 trillion yen (approximately $161 billion) was made to fund the stimulus plan, indicating a willingness to issue more bonds [3]. - Analysts suggest that the market's reaction reflects a lack of confidence in Japan's sovereign debt sustainability, with the debt burden at about 250% of GDP [4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year, marking a return to negative growth since Q1 2024 [4]. - The depreciation of the yen against the dollar, which fell below 155 yen for the first time since February, has raised concerns about rising import costs [5]. - The Japanese government is facing pressure to balance fiscal expansion with the need to support the yen, as further depreciation could exacerbate inflationary pressures [5]. Group 3: Global Market Impact - The potential unwinding of yen carry trades could lead to a tightening of global liquidity and a sell-off in risk assets, with correlations observed between carry trade unwinding and declines in the S&P 500 [6][7]. - Emerging market currencies may experience a 1% to 3% decline within 30 days due to the unwinding of these trades, while U.S. Treasury yields could rise by 15 to 40 basis points [7]. - The tightening of liquidity is expected to impact all risk assets, particularly technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, as investors begin to hedge against risks [7].