政策博弈下的贬值压力与干预隐忧并存 日元贬至10个月新低

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing significant depreciation against the US dollar, influenced by various factors including government fiscal expansion policies, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy normalization, and widening interest rate differentials between the US and Japan [1][2][3] Group 1: Currency Exchange Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate reached 157.48, the highest level since January 2025, reflecting a 5% appreciation since October 4, 2023 [1] - The nominal effective exchange rate of the yen fell to 71.4, nearing the low point observed during the intervention in July 2024 [1] - The depreciation of the yen is coupled with rising Japanese government bond yields, with the 10-year yield hitting 1.825%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis [1][2] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Economic Impact - The Japanese government is pushing for a comprehensive economic strategy exceeding 20 trillion yen, which includes child subsidies and energy assistance, raising concerns about debt sustainability as the current debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 260% [2] - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, marking the end of six consecutive quarters of growth, indicating weak domestic and external demand [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The market's expectation for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December is only at 57%, as the central bank maintains a policy rate of 0.5% despite core CPI exceeding the 2% target for 36 consecutive months [2][3] - The Japanese government opposes interest rate hikes, arguing that inflation has not yet reached a sustainable level, which conflicts with the Bank of Japan's logic of a wage-price positive cycle [2][3] Group 4: Market Reactions and Predictions - Financial institutions have lowered their forecasts for the yen, with JPMorgan adjusting its prediction for the USD/JPY exchange rate to 156 by the end of 2025 [4] - Key upcoming events include the announcement of the stimulus plan on November 21 and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting in December, which could significantly influence the yen's trajectory [4] Group 5: Policy Indicators and Potential Outcomes - A potential increase in the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% could lead to a 1-2% appreciation of the yen [5] - Continuous inflation above 3% for six months may force the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy, leading to a medium-term strengthening of the yen [5] - The government's focus on monitoring exchange rate fluctuations may signal a prelude to verbal interventions, potentially stabilizing the yen in the short term [5]