Jiang Nan Shi Bao·2025-11-20 09:24Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is gaining attention in the capital market due to a combination of declining interest rates, policy support, and low valuations, leading to increased investment from long-term funds like insurance capital [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Insurance Capital Favoring Bank Stocks - Insurance capital seeks stable and reliable assets due to a mismatch in the average duration of liabilities (over 12 years) and assets (approximately 6 years), resulting in over 2 trillion yuan needing investment annually [1]. - Bank stocks are attractive due to their high dividend yields, low valuations, and low volatility, with an average dividend yield of 3.86%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.82% as of November 19, 2025 [1][2]. Group 2: Valuation and Stability of the Banking Sector - The banking sector's price-to-book ratio is at 0.63, indicating extreme low valuation and providing a safety cushion [2]. - The banking sector has shown a volatility of only 14.90% over the past three years, which is significantly lower than the 24.80% volatility of the CSI 300 index, making it suitable for long-term holding as a core asset [2]. Group 3: Impact of IFRS 9 on Insurance Companies - The implementation of IFRS 9 accounting standards requires insurance companies to estimate and recognize expected credit losses at the initial recognition of assets, affecting profits even before actual losses occur [2]. - This new standard encourages insurance companies to classify more equity investments as FVOCI (Fair Value Through Other Comprehensive Income), which helps to isolate short-term market fluctuations from profit statements, making bank stocks a suitable choice for long-term holding [2]. Group 4: Preferred Bank Stocks Among Insurance Capital - Insurance capital shows a preference for state-owned banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank due to their stable dividends and strong liquidity [3]. - Quality joint-stock banks such as China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank are favored for their robust profitability and potential for valuation recovery [3]. - High-growth regional banks like Chengdu Bank and Suzhou Bank are also attractive due to their high ROE and asset quality, indicating potential for price appreciation [3]. - Hong Kong-listed bank stocks, such as CITIC Bank and Chongqing Bank, are appealing due to higher dividend yields and more attractive valuations [3]. Group 5: Implications for Ordinary Investors - For ordinary investors, bank stocks offer a combination of high dividends and low valuations, providing defensive characteristics and cash flow returns in the current market environment [5]. - As market trends shift towards stable returns, bank stocks can play a crucial role in balancing risk and securing stable dividends within an investment portfolio [5].