日本长期债券遭抛售，日元套利交易若反转，恐殃及全球流动性

Group 1 - The Japanese government has announced a $110 billion fiscal stimulus plan, leading to a sell-off of long-term Japanese bonds and a surge in yields, with the 10-year bond yield reaching its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis [1][4] - The proposed supplementary budget of over 25 trillion yen (approximately $161 billion) aims to fund the stimulus plan, significantly exceeding last year's additional budget of 13.9 trillion yen [4] - Analysts express concerns that the rising bond yields reflect a lack of confidence in Japan's sovereign debt sustainability, as the country's debt burden is about 250% of its GDP [5] Group 2 - The depreciation of the yen and rising bond yields may trigger a reversal of approximately $20 trillion in yen carry trades, posing a threat to global risk assets [3][7] - The yen has weakened against the dollar, falling below 155 yen for the first time since February, while the Nikkei 225 index experienced its largest single-day drop since April [5][6] - The Bank of Japan's potential delay in interest rate hikes, combined with fiscal expansion, could further pressure the yen and increase import costs, complicating the government's efforts to manage inflation [6][7] Group 3 - The rise in long-term Japanese bond yields could lead to forced liquidation of yen carry trades, which may impact global liquidity and risk assets [7][8] - Historical correlations suggest that unwinding yen carry trades could lead to declines in the S&P 500 and emerging market currencies, with potential drops of 1% to 3% in the latter within 30 days [8] - The tightening of liquidity may adversely affect all risk assets, including technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, as investors begin to hedge risks [8]