陆挺预测“十五五”出口增速或明显回落，但斌直言“投资要去大海里打鲸鱼”

Group 1 - The global economy is currently in a "Kondratiev depression," with old technological potentials exhausted and new technologies not yet matured, leading to a zero-sum mentality replacing multilateral cooperation [2] - China's export growth rate averaged nearly 8% over the past five years, but it is expected to decline to 3% to 5% during the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period [2][7] - The real estate sector, referred to as "old economy," still significantly impacts China's macroeconomic landscape, accounting for 50% of household wealth and being deeply tied to local finances and infrastructure [3][8] Group 2 - The shift from an "efficiency-first" globalization model has led to increased costs and risks for businesses, as exemplified by Huawei's supply chain disruptions due to chip shortages [5][6] - The current investment environment emphasizes the importance of choosing the right sectors, with a strong focus on artificial intelligence (AI) as the next major growth driver, comparable to the impact of the steam engine [4][9] - Companies with strong AI capabilities or those that can defend against AI disruptions are becoming more attractive for investment, reshaping both secondary and primary market investment logic [10][11] Group 3 - The challenge of wealth transfer among family businesses in China is significant, with 3 million family enterprises facing succession issues, potentially involving a wealth scale of 300 trillion RMB [12] - The difficulty of second-generation entrepreneurs replicating the success of their predecessors is highlighted, suggesting a need for institutional governance to ensure sustainable wealth management [14]