Circle Q3交易量暴增580%，但收入命脉掌握在美联储手中

Core Viewpoint - Circle's third-quarter performance shows strong results, but the full realization of its diversified revenue efforts will be slow, and a recession could lead to a significant downturn in its business [3][4] Market Environment - The total supply of stablecoins increased by 59% year-over-year in the third quarter, with Circle's market share rising to 29% [4] - Stablecoin trading volume grew approximately 130% year-over-year, with USDC's trading volume accounting for 40% of the total [4] - A favorable regulatory environment is emerging for stablecoins, positioning Circle advantageously due to its compliance focus [3] Business Updates - Circle primarily issues USDC, with the recent launch of the EURC stablecoin having minimal market impact [6] - Circle is developing a Layer-1 blockchain, Arc, which has over 100 participating institutions in its public test [6] - Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) transactions reached $31.3 billion, a 640% year-over-year increase, representing 47% of tracked cross-chain transfers [6] - Circle's payment network (CPN) is set to launch in May 2025, with current annualized transaction volume at approximately $3.4 billion [7] - The USYC tokenized money market fund has approximately $1 billion in assets under management, making it the second-largest globally [7] Financial Analysis - The total supply of USDC reached nearly $74 billion, a 108% year-over-year increase, with on-chain transaction volume growing 580% to $9.6 trillion [8] - Revenue and reserve income grew by 66% to $740 million, impacted by lower interest rates [8] - Adjusted operating expenses increased by 35% to $131 million, with adjusted EBITDA at $166 million and a profit margin of 22% [9] - Distribution, trading, and other costs rose by 74% to $448 million, leading to a net distribution cost margin of 39.5% [11] Future Outlook - Circle anticipates a 40% compound annual growth rate for USDC supply over the next few years, with revenue growth potentially below 30% [8] - The company projects "other income" to reach $90 million to $100 million by 2025, indicating a stable outlook for this revenue segment [8] - Despite strong profitability, the business's reliance on interest rates and cryptocurrency speculation raises concerns about future performance [12]