拓邦股份(002139)：业绩承压 海外产能有望明年爬坡

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.188 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.34%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 23.86% to 420 million yuan [1] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 21.98%, down 1.73 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to tariff policies and intensified industry competition [4] - The company is expanding into new business areas, including digital energy and smart automotive sectors, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth in the future [3] Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.685 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.05% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 44.69% to 90 million yuan [1] - The company’s non-recurring net profit for Q3 was 86 million yuan, down 48.41% year-on-year [1] - The increase in the expense ratio to 16.18% in the first three quarters, up 1.27 percentage points year-on-year, was attributed to slower revenue growth and increased stock incentive costs [4] Business Development - The company’s core business remains stable with high visibility in orders, particularly in the tools and home appliance sectors, where partnerships with major clients are expanding [2] - The digital energy segment is in a critical market expansion phase, with significant growth expected in Europe and Asia-Pacific [3] - The smart automotive sector is gaining traction, with products like charging stations and laser radar motors being certified by leading automotive manufacturers [3] Investment Outlook - Due to the impact of tariffs and competitive pressures, the company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of 11.05 billion, 12.72 billion, and 14.92 billion yuan respectively [5] - The earnings per share estimates have also been revised down to 0.46, 0.59, and 0.81 yuan for the same period [5] - Despite the challenges, the company maintains a "buy" rating based on the strong fundamentals of its core business and the growth potential of its innovative segments [5]