智通财经网·2025-11-20 12:14Core Viewpoint - The domestic steel market in China is experiencing a downward trend, with prices showing signs of weakness due to seasonal demand decline and overall market conditions [1][12]. Group 1: Steel Price Index Trends - In October 2025, the average CSPI (China Steel Price Index) was 91.92 points, a decrease of 1.26 points or 1.35% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decline of 9.10 points or 9.01% [2][8]. - The long product index averaged 92.23 points, down 1.49 points or 1.58% month-on-month, and down 13.04 points or 12.39% year-on-year [4][8]. - The plate index averaged 91.17 points, down 1.15 points or 1.25% month-on-month, and down 6.80 points or 6.94% year-on-year [4][8]. Group 2: Price Changes by Product Type - In October, most monitored steel products saw price declines, with hot-rolled coil prices dropping by 63 CNY/ton, while seamless pipe prices fell by 25 CNY/ton [9][10]. - The average price of rebar was 3098 CNY/ton, down 51 CNY/ton from the previous month, reflecting a decrease of 1.46% [9][10]. - The average price of galvanized sheet was 4166 CNY/ton, down 44 CNY/ton, indicating a decline of 1.03% [9][10]. Group 3: Regional Price Index Variations - In October 2025, all six major regions in China saw a month-on-month decline in the CSPI, with the Central South region experiencing the largest drop of 1.72% [14][16]. - The average rebar price index in the Western region was 3110 CNY/ton, down 82 CNY/ton or 2.58% from the previous month [14][16]. Group 4: Investment and Economic Indicators - From January to October 2025, fixed asset investment in China was 408914 billion CNY, down 1.7% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment showing a negative growth for the first time this year [17][20]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7%, but the growth rate slowed compared to previous months, indicating weakening demand in the steel sector [17][20]. - The real estate sector continued to show signs of weakness, with cumulative investment down 14.7% year-on-year, exacerbating the oversupply pressure in the steel market [19][20]. Group 5: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the first ten months of 2025, crude steel production was 81787 million tons, down 3.9% year-on-year, while apparent consumption fell by 6.5% [21][22]. - The average price of major raw materials increased, with coking coal rising by 3.82%, providing some support to steel prices [22][23]. - The steel export volume in October was 978.2 million tons, a decrease of 6.5% from the previous month, indicating pressure from global market conditions [43][44]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The steel industry is expected to face increased supply-demand imbalance as the traditional off-season approaches, necessitating self-discipline in production to stabilize prices [44]. - The government is likely to implement policies to control crude steel production, aiming to alleviate the oversupply issue and improve market conditions [39][40].