前10个月广义财政支出增速放缓至5.2%，年末两月待发力|财税益侃

Core Insights - China's fiscal policy has become more proactive this year, with fiscal spending maintaining a certain level of intensity to support economic recovery [2] - The broad fiscal expenditure has outpaced revenue growth, indicating a strong push for active fiscal policies [2][6] - Increased fiscal spending is notably directed towards social welfare, aligning with government goals to invest more in human resources [3][4] Fiscal Performance - In the first ten months of this year, broad fiscal revenue was approximately 22.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 0.2%, while broad fiscal expenditure reached about 30.7 trillion yuan, growing by approximately 5.2% [2] - The gap between fiscal expenditure and revenue was about 8.6 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 21% [2] - The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure aligns with the economic growth rate of 5.2% for the first three quarters, supporting stable economic performance [2] Social Welfare Spending - National general public budget expenditure for the first ten months was about 22.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [3] - Key areas of social welfare spending, including social security and employment, education, and health, saw growth rates exceeding the average of 2%, with social security and employment spending increasing by 9.3% [3] - The government has allocated around 100 billion yuan in childcare subsidies for children under three years old, benefiting numerous families [3] Infrastructure Spending - Due to increased focus on social welfare, infrastructure spending within the national general public budget has generally declined [4] - Government fund expenditures, supported by local government special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds, have maintained rapid growth, facilitating the commencement of major projects [6] Debt and Future Projections - In the first ten months, government fund budget expenditure was approximately 8.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [6] - To meet the initial budget goals, a significant increase in expenditure is required in the last two months of the year, with projections indicating a need for a 12.9% year-on-year growth in general public budget expenditure [6][8] - New policies have been introduced to maintain fiscal spending, including allowing local governments to issue an additional 500 billion yuan in special bonds [8]