Options Corner: MSTR Example Trade

Core Insights - MicroStrategy has experienced a significant decline of over 60% in the past year, contrasting with the S&P 500, which has increased by approximately 12% [2][3] - The company's stock is currently in a downtrend, having broken through a previous support level of 237, with a recent intraday low of 181.73 [3][4] - There are mixed signals in the market, with the RSI indicating a small bullish divergence but also showing oversold conditions, typically a sign of weakness [4][5] Technical Analysis - The stock's price needs to break above the trend line and previous highs near 213-214 for signs of a potential trend reversal [5] - Potential support and resistance levels are identified, with the minus two standard deviation channel aligning with old lows near 214, and the minus three standard deviation channel around 160-130 [6] - Current trading sentiment is bearish, with the stock recently bouncing to about 192, still down 65% from its all-time highs [7][8] Options Strategy - A proposed options strategy involves selling the December 5th weekly options with a 180 strike put and buying a 170 strike put, creating a neutral to bullish put vertical [9][10] - This strategy aims to capitalize on higher implied volatility while providing a cushion of approximately 8% below the current share price, with a break-even point at 177.20 [10] - The probability of the short 180 strike being out of the money at expiration is estimated at about 58%, offering a better chance of success [10]