Can Nebius Overcome Its Capacity Bottleneck to Drive Higher Revenues?

Core Insights - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is focusing on an aggressive capacity expansion strategy to drive significant revenue growth, having sold out all available capacity in Q3 and continuing to see strong demand [1][8] - The company has revised its 2025 CapEx guidance from approximately $2 billion to around $5 billion to support this expansion, which is essential for serving large-scale AI workloads [3][8] - Nebius has updated its 2025 revenue guidance to $500–$550 million, reflecting strong underlying momentum despite capacity constraints [4][8] Capacity Expansion Plans - By 2026, Nebius expects contracted power to reach 2.5 GW, an increase from the previously outlined 1 GW, with plans for 800 MW to 1 GW of power connected to data centers by the end of 2026 [2] - The company is utilizing various funding sources, including corporate debt, asset-backed financing, and equity, to finance its expansion efforts [3] Competitive Landscape - The AI infrastructure market is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Microsoft and CoreWeave expanding their capacities, which poses challenges for Nebius [5][6][7] - Microsoft plans to increase its AI capacity by over 80% in 2025 and expects Azure revenue to grow about 37% in constant currency, indicating strong demand in the sector [6] - CoreWeave is also facing supply constraints, with its revenue outlook for 2025 revised down due to delays in capacity expansion [7] Financial Performance - Nebius shares have surged 144.2% over the past six months, significantly outperforming the Internet – Software and Services industry, which grew by 6.9% [9] - The company's shares are trading at a price/book ratio of 4.66X, which is lower than the industry's 39.95X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nebius's 2025 earnings has seen downward revisions over the past 60 days, indicating potential challenges ahead [11][12]