碳酸锂期价徘徊于10万元/吨关口

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend due to significant changes in supply and demand fundamentals, with expectations for future demand remaining robust [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of November 20, the main lithium carbonate futures contract (2601) fluctuated around 100,000 yuan/ton, closing at 99,880 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of nearly 1.6 million contracts and an open interest of approximately 480,000 contracts [1]. - Analysts indicate that the current bullish trend in lithium carbonate futures is primarily driven by strong supply and demand fundamentals, seasonal demand support, and increased capital inflow [1][2]. - The contract reached a peak of 102,500 yuan/ton, marking the highest level since June 2024, before closing below the critical 100,000 yuan/ton mark [1]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - The demand side is supported by a robust market for energy storage and power batteries, with expectations of a 30% to 40% increase in demand by 2026, potentially raising price levels to a range of 150,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton [2]. - The lithium carbonate inventory has dropped to its lowest level in nearly three years, providing strong support for prices [2]. - The core driver of the recent price increase is the demand exceeding expectations, which has shifted from a marginal variable to a core variable affecting the supply-demand landscape [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - The total open interest in lithium carbonate futures has surpassed 1.1 million contracts, reaching a record high since its listing, with the total capital involved nearing 24 billion yuan [3]. - Market participants are advised to closely monitor inventory changes, mining recovery progress, and downstream order data to navigate potential short-term trading risks [3].