Adobe Drops 36% in a Year: Can AI Push Help the Stock Recover?

Core Insights - Adobe's shares have declined 36.3% over the past year, underperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's return of 23.9% and the Zacks Computer – Software industry's appreciation of 9.5% [1][8] - The underperformance is attributed to modest growth prospects due to intense competition in the AI and generative AI sectors from companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, Salesforce, and others [1][15] Financial Performance - Adobe's annual recurring revenues (ARR) influenced by AI surpassed $5 billion, with new AI-first products generating over $250 million in ARR [6][8] - The company raised its fiscal 2025 revenue guidance to between $23.65 billion and $23.7 billion, up from the previous range of $23.5-$23.6 billion [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 revenues is pegged at $23.67 billion, indicating a 10.1% growth from 2024 [12] AI Business Growth - Strong demand for AI-powered products like Creative Cloud Pro and Acrobat is driving growth, with monthly active users of Acrobat and Express growing approximately 25% year over year [7][8] - The Creative Professionals segment is benefiting from increased usage of AI in applications like Photoshop and Premiere Pro [8][9] - The integrated GenStudio solution and other AI services now exceed $1 billion in ARR, growing more than 25% year over year [10] Competitive Landscape - Adobe's AI business remains small compared to competitors like Microsoft and Alphabet, which are seeing significant growth in their AI services [15] - Microsoft and Alphabet have reported returns of 17.3% and 68.3%, respectively, while Salesforce has seen a decline of 30% [2][15] Valuation Concerns - Adobe's Value Score is C, indicating a stretched valuation, trading at 11.31X price/book compared to the sector's 10.13X and competitors like Microsoft and Alphabet [16] - The stock is currently trading below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting a bearish trend [21]