The S&P 500 Just Flashed a Warning Last Seen After President Trump Announced Tariffs in April. History Says the Stock Market Will Do This Next

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 has experienced a decline of over 2% in November due to economic concerns and high valuations, particularly in the AI sector, with the technology sector retreating more than 5% month to date [2][3] Economic Concerns - Investors are increasingly worried that persistent inflation will lead the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the upcoming December meeting, with the probability of a rate cut dropping from 100% to 43% [3] Technical Indicators - On November 17, the S&P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average for the first time since April, a significant technical indicator that has historically been followed by positive performance [4][6] Historical Performance - Historically, when the S&P 500 has dropped below its 50-day moving average, it has performed well, with a median return of 15% over the next year and an 81% chance of increasing over the next six months [9][10] Future Projections - If the S&P 500 follows historical trends, it could rise to 7,710, representing a 15% increase over the next year, which is above the average annual return of 12.5% over the past decade [8][9]