November 2025 Trading Outlook: Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And Fed Policy Implications

Group 1 - The report utilizes a sectoral balance framework to evaluate how fiscal and monetary dynamics influence risk asset performance, particularly in the context of cooling inflation and rising unemployment [1] - The Federal Reserve is indicating a policy shift, which may impact trading in real estate, equity, and bond markets [1] - The analysis is based on key economic indicators represented as percentages of GDP, specifically Federal spending, Non-Federal spending, Net Exports, and Credit [1] Group 2 - The report suggests that an increase in the federal deficit leads to a rise in private surplus, which in turn positively affects risk asset markets [1] - The methodology allows for quick analysis of a country's economic situation using just four numbers, facilitating a deeper understanding of fiscal flows and their implications [1]