国际能源署报告显示—— 全球石油市场供需逐渐失衡

Core Insights - The global oil market is experiencing a shift, with supply steadily increasing while demand growth has fallen below historical averages [1][2] - Recent U.S. tariffs and economic impacts from government shutdowns, along with new sanctions on Russia, contribute to market uncertainties [1] - Brent crude oil prices have declined for four consecutive months, averaging $64.64 per barrel in October [1] Supply Dynamics - Global oil supply decreased by 440,000 barrels per day in October to 108.2 million barrels per day, influenced by OPEC+ production cuts [2] - Despite the recent decline, global oil production has increased by 6.2 million barrels per day since January [2] - Projections indicate a supply increase of 3.1 million barrels per day by 2025, reaching an average of 106.3 million barrels per day [2] Russian Oil Industry Impact - New sanctions on major Russian oil producers, which account for about 50% of Russia's crude production and exports, will intensify pressure on the Russian oil sector [3] - Although Russian oil exports have not yet faced significant disruptions, international buyers are reassessing risks and seeking alternative solutions [3] - The volume of oil stored on tankers has increased significantly, with nearly 200 million barrels currently at sea, 32% of which is under sanctions [3] Refining and Demand Outlook - Despite weaker-than-expected demand for petrochemical feedstocks, refining margins in Europe and Asia have surged to a two-year high due to various production disruptions [4] - Global refining throughput dropped by 2.9 million barrels per day in October but is expected to recover by year-end [4] - The forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 has been revised upward by 170,000 barrels per day, driven by strong deliveries from China [4]