Crude Prices Retreat on Dollar Strength and Possible Ukraine Peace Deal

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing significant declines, with gasoline reaching a 1.5-week low, influenced by a stronger dollar and geopolitical developments [2][4] - A report indicates that the Trump administration is collaborating with Russia to formulate a new plan to resolve the Ukraine conflict, adding pressure to energy prices [2] - Russian crude exports have decreased significantly, with shipments falling to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in early November, the lowest in over three years, due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and sanctions [3][4] Price Movements - December WTI crude oil is down by $1.47 (-2.42%) and December RBOB gasoline is down by $0.0612 (-3.06%) [1] - The dollar index has reached a 1.5-week high, contributing to bearish sentiment in energy markets [2] Supply Dynamics - The EIA reported a mixed inventory situation, with crude supplies declining more than expected while gasoline and distillate stockpiles increased [2] - OPEC revised its Q3 global oil market outlook from a deficit to a surplus, now estimating a surplus of 500,000 bpd, driven by higher US production and increased OPEC output [5] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 bpd in December but will pause further increases in Q1-2026 due to the anticipated global oil surplus [6] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical risks, including the seizure of an oil tanker by Iran and US military actions regarding Venezuela, are providing underlying support for oil prices [4] - Ukraine's military actions have significantly impacted Russian refining capacity, reducing it by 13% to 20% and affecting crude export capabilities [3]