美联储哈玛克警告：再降息或引燃金融风险 下一次衰退恐超预期

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland Federal Reserve President Mester warns that further interest rate cuts could pose widespread risks to the economy due to persistently high inflation above the Fed's 2% target [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Mester emphasizes that lowering interest rates to support the labor market could prolong the current high inflation period and encourage risk-taking behavior in financial markets [1] - She opposes the recent decision by the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% to support a weak labor market [1] Group 2: Financial Conditions - Current financial conditions are described as "quite accommodative," with rising stock prices and loose credit conditions, which could lead to cheaper credit supporting high-risk loans [1] - Mester notes that a decline in short-term borrowing costs led by the Fed could distort market pricing, potentially resulting in a larger economic downturn when it occurs [1] Group 3: Economic Stability - While Mester acknowledges that rate cuts may be seen as a safeguard for the job market, she warns that this "insurance" could come at the cost of increased financial stability risks [1] - She highlights that the financial system is currently in good shape, with strong bank capital and stable household balance sheets, but raises concerns about high leverage levels in hedge funds and insurance companies [2]