国际能源署报告显示——全球石油市场供需逐渐失衡

Group 1 - The global oil market balance is being disrupted, with steady supply growth but demand growth falling below historical averages [2] - Brent crude oil prices fell by $3.26 per barrel in October, marking a four-month decline, with an average price of $64.64 per barrel [2] - Global oil supply decreased by 440,000 barrels per day in October to 108.2 million barrels per day, influenced by OPEC+ production cuts [3] Group 2 - Despite the October decline, global oil production is still up by 6.2 million barrels per day compared to January, with both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries contributing equally to this increase [3] - Saudi Arabia increased its oil production by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day from January to October, while Russia's production only grew by 120,000 barrels per day due to sanctions [3][4] - New sanctions on Russian oil companies, which account for about 50% of Russia's crude production and exports, will take effect on November 21, increasing pressure on the Russian oil industry [4] Group 3 - There has been a significant increase in offshore oil storage, with 92 million barrels added in October, leading to nearly 200 million barrels of oil stranded at sea [4] - Diesel and jet fuel markets are experiencing tight supply, with limited relief expected in the short term [4] - Global refining throughput dropped by 2.9 million barrels per day in October to 81.5 million barrels per day, but is expected to recover by year-end [5] Group 4 - The report raised the global oil demand growth forecast for Q3 2025 by 170,000 barrels per day, driven by strong oil deliveries from China [5] - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 790,000 barrels per day in 2025, with contributions from the US, China, and Nigeria [5] - The demand growth rate is expected to slow down in Q4 2025, while oil supply is anticipated to rebound, exacerbating the existing oversupply situation [5]