中信证券：维持美联储12月降息的预测

Core Insights - In September 2025, both the new non-farm employment figures and the unemployment rate in the U.S. exceeded expectations, indicating a divergence between these two key indicators [1] - The unemployment rate, which rose to 4.44% in September, is considered a more reliable data point compared to the potentially revised new employment figures, making it crucial for the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts in December [1] - The unemployment rate has increased for three consecutive months, suggesting that the Fed may struggle to justify a lower unemployment rate in October and November, which could exceed 4.5% [1] - The September non-farm report is not the final employment data before the December meeting, and ongoing weakness in the job market is expected to be reflected in subsequent economic data [1] - Among the 12 voting members for the December meeting, doves still hold a majority, leading to the expectation that a rate cut of 25 basis points may be a close call [1]