【中国制造新观察】6G发展不是一步到位

Core Viewpoint - The consensus in the industry is that the development of 6G is a gradual process rather than an immediate leap, correcting some overly ambitious perspectives on the technology race [2][3] Group 1: Development Process - The industry recognizes that 6G will not simply be an enhancement of 5G but will achieve data transmission speeds 10 to 100 times faster than 5G, with latency reduced to one-tenth of 5G [3] - The development of 6G is structured in three phases: the first phase identifies key technical directions, the second focuses on typical scenarios and performance indicators, and the third involves the development of pre-commercial devices [3] - The current stage of 6G development is the second phase, emphasizing the importance of leveraging existing 5G capabilities as a foundation for future advancements [3] Group 2: Standardization and Innovation - The first version of 6G standards should not aim for perfection but should significantly improve upon existing 5G/5G-A standards, allowing for future iterations [4] - The integration of artificial intelligence with 6G is expected to transform mobile terminals, but the evolution from traditional devices to intelligent, multi-form wearable technology will require time and adaptation [4][5] - Over 300 key technologies related to 6G are being developed in China, focusing on terminal innovation through iterative technological advancements [5] Group 3: Industry Implications - 6G is anticipated to drive the development of upstream and downstream industries, including chips, devices, application development, and system integration, creating a new trillion-dollar industry ecosystem [3] - The gradual evolution of communication technology is essential to avoid resource misallocation and to ensure that both 5G and 6G can progress in a complementary manner [2][3] - Maintaining a realistic perspective on the timeline for 6G development is crucial, as significant innovations typically result from continuous optimization rather than sudden breakthroughs [5]