Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports an improved outlook for the aluminum industry, driven by demand from energy storage systems (ESS) exceeding expectations and supply challenges due to power issues [1] - The firm has raised the target price for China Hongqiao (01378) from HKD 30.6 to HKD 44.7, maintaining it as a preferred stock with an "overweight" rating [1] - Demand for aluminum in China is expected to grow significantly due to ESS and other consumer electronics, with ESS's share of total battery installations in China increasing from 25% in June to over 40% [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, Morgan Stanley anticipates global aluminum production to reach approximately 1.4 million tons by 2026, with Indonesia being a key new supply source [2] - However, China's commitment to not build new coal-fired power plants abroad to achieve carbon neutrality poses challenges for new supply, potentially delaying power construction for 18 to 24 months [2] - Current aluminum inventory in China is low at 600,000 tons, which is relatively low compared to historical levels over the past five years, and government policies may further reduce available aluminum on the futures market [2]
大摩：铝需求激增叠加供应受限 上调中国宏桥(01378)目标价至44.7港元