合成橡胶承压运行

Core Viewpoint - The synthetic rubber market in China is under pressure due to increased production capacity of butadiene and synthetic rubber, high finished product inventory among tire manufacturers, and low operating rates for both full steel and semi-steel tires [1][2]. Production Capacity - China's butadiene production capacity has reached 7.577 million tons per year, a year-on-year increase of 14.16% [2] - Five new butadiene production units have been added this year, contributing a net increase of 940,000 tons per year after accounting for capacity exits [2] - By 2025, China's synthetic rubber capacity is expected to exceed 8 million tons, accounting for 32% of the global total [2][3] Market Demand - In October, the production of rubber tires in China decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, with total output at 97.951 million units [4] - The automotive industry shows strong performance, with production and sales of vehicles increasing by 11.2% and 8.8% year-on-year, respectively, supporting demand for original equipment tires [4] - However, the export market has seen a slowdown, with tire exports growing by only 4% from January to October, down from 10.25% in 2024 [4] Inventory and Utilization Rates - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire manufacturers is 44.82 days, while for full steel tire manufacturers it is 39.01 days, indicating a need for inventory reduction [4] - The capacity utilization rate for semi-steel tires is 72.99%, showing a slight increase, while full steel tires have a utilization rate of 64.29%, reflecting a decrease [5] Price Trends - As of November 19, butadiene prices in Shandong are reported at 7,100 yuan per ton, with a significant drop in production profits for various production processes [6] - The price gap between butadiene and synthetic rubber remains large, with synthetic rubber prices reported at 10,450 yuan per ton, indicating a need for price correction [6][8] - Overall, the synthetic rubber market is expected to continue experiencing weak fluctuations due to increased domestic supply and ongoing demand pressures [8]