资本市场增强吸引力包容性 明年A股怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to establish a "low volatility slow bull" foundation by 2026, supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, clearer industrial directions, and a friendlier regulatory framework [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic backdrop is characterized by a projected growth rate of around 5% in 2025 and approximately 4.9% in 2026, with a fiscal deficit rate likely maintained at 4% [3] - The positive momentum in China's capital market is accumulating, with a focus on moderate recovery rather than aggressive growth [2][3] - The global financial order is expected to undergo profound restructuring, with a revaluation of Chinese asset values anticipated to accelerate [2][4] Group 2: Industry Trends - "New quality productivity" is a recurring theme, with sectors like artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and aerospace leading market narratives [5] - The market structure is shifting towards "new economy" sectors, with significant growth in the market capitalization of industries such as semiconductors and renewable energy [6] - Chinese companies are increasingly positioned to compete globally, leveraging their comprehensive advantages in cost, engineering capabilities, and market scale [6] Group 3: Globalization and Capital Flow - The trend of Chinese enterprises going global is emerging, with a shift from merely exporting goods to providing capital goods and solutions to emerging markets [7] - High expectations for capital inflows from real estate and low-yield bonds into equity assets, with estimates suggesting up to 6 trillion RMB could flow into the stock market [8][4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The combination of AI and advanced manufacturing is seen as a key growth driver, with significant investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from AI applications [9] - The "outbound + RMB internationalization" strategy is identified as crucial for improving corporate profitability and valuation over the next five years [9] - The A-share market is transitioning towards a more structured investment culture, with a focus on long-term capital and improved financial product offerings [11]