比特币“金库”模式坍塌! “持币大户”Strategy(MSTR.US)从“信仰飞轮”变流动性黑洞

Core Viewpoint - Strategy Inc., led by Michael Saylor, is facing significant risks due to the failure of its Bitcoin treasury model and the potential removal from major indices like the Nasdaq 100, which could severely impact its market presence and liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance and Market Impact - The price of Bitcoin has dropped over 30% from its historical peak, leading to a more than 60% decline in Strategy's stock price since July [1]. - Strategy's market capitalization has fallen to around $50 billion, with passive ETFs linked to the company holding nearly $9 billion in market exposure [2]. - The company's stock price has plummeted over 70% since reaching a record high in November, although it has still increased by approximately 1300% since Saylor's first Bitcoin purchase in August 2020 [5][7]. Group 2: Index Inclusion and Financial Implications - Analysts from JPMorgan warn that Strategy may lose its positions in the MSCI USA and Nasdaq 100 indices, which could lead to forced outflows of up to $2.8 billion if adjustments are made [2][3]. - The MSCI has indicated that companies like Strategy, which hold a significant portion of digital assets, may be treated more like investment funds and thus not qualify for index inclusion [4]. - The removal from major indices could negatively affect Strategy's liquidity, financing costs, and overall investment appeal [3]. Group 3: Business Model and Market Sentiment - Strategy's business model, which relies on selling stock to buy Bitcoin, has seen its premium diminish, with the current market value closely aligning with its Bitcoin reserves [2][9]. - The company's mNAV (market value to Bitcoin holdings ratio) has dropped to just above 1.1, indicating a loss of investor confidence in the Bitcoin treasury model [9]. - The recent downturn in cryptocurrency prices has also affected Strategy's financing tools, with perpetual preferred shares trading significantly below their issue price [7][8]. Group 4: Broader Industry Context - The recent cryptocurrency market downturn has impacted various investor groups, including retail traders and high-leverage mining companies, contrasting sharply with the bullish sentiment observed just months prior [4]. - The traditional mechanisms of index inclusion, once seen as a legitimizing force for market participation, are now being tested against the sustainability of the cryptocurrency investment narrative [12].