符合预期，港口基准价维持不变

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 coal supply long-term contract plan released by the National Development and Reform Commission provides comprehensive guidance on contract signing, including targets, methods, quantities, pricing mechanisms, and regulatory measures for compliance [1][2]. Summary by Sections Contract Signing and Compliance - The 2026 plan continues the mechanism established in the 2022 long-term contract plan, which was a significant adjustment from the previous five-year mechanism since 2017. The compliance requirements for long-term contracts have been slightly relaxed from 2022 to 2026, but the foundation for compliance remains intact [3]. - For electric companies, the principle is that the signed contracts should not be less than 80% of the signing demand, with 80% of these contracts being subject to key regulatory oversight. The wording has been modified from "should not be less than" to "principally should not be less than" [3]. - For coal companies, the requirement remains that the task volume should not be less than 75% of their own resource volume [3]. Pricing Mechanism - The pricing mechanism for coal from production areas will include a new monthly adjustment mechanism, while the benchmark price for port contracts remains unchanged. The production area pricing will be based on a "benchmark price + floating price" model, with the benchmark price being the median of reasonable price ranges from key coal-producing regions [4]. - The adjustment in the pricing mechanism for production area contracts allows for closer alignment with market changes, while the port pricing mechanism remains stable despite previous long-term contract price discrepancies [4]. Compliance Supervision - The compliance requirements have been relaxed, emphasizing seasonal adjustments. The monthly compliance rate should not be less than 80%, with quarterly and annual compliance rates ideally not less than 90%. There is a new emphasis on increasing compliance during peak demand periods [4]. Investment Recommendations - With the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, the expected increase in domestic coal supply is limited. Following the recovery of coal prices, compliance with long-term contracts is expected to improve significantly. If prices remain high, there is considerable potential for performance recovery in coal companies. Key companies to watch include Jin控煤业, 华阳股份, 山煤国际, 兖矿能源, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中国神华 [4].