日元干预警报利差博弈升温

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing strong fluctuations, with the current trading price at 157.37, reflecting a 0.56% increase from the previous day, driven by the divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Bank of Japan has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive time, while the Federal Reserve remains cautious about potential interest rate cuts, supporting a hawkish stance [2]. - Japan's core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year in September, exceeding the target for 18 consecutive months, but internal divisions regarding potential rate hikes persist within the Bank of Japan [2]. Group 2: Yen Performance and Market Sentiment - The yen has depreciated over 3% since October, making it the weakest currency among G10 currencies, and is approaching intervention thresholds set by the Japanese Ministry of Finance [3]. - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's comments respecting Japan's monetary policy autonomy have fueled speculation about potential market interventions by Japanese authorities [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY has established a clear upward channel, with current prices near the upper boundary, focusing on the 157.00-157.50 range for short-term trading [4]. - Key resistance is identified between 157.80-158.00, while support levels are at 156.80 and 156.50; a breach of these levels could indicate further price movements [4]. - Technical indicators show bullish signals, with the MACD indicating accumulating bullish momentum and the RSI at 62, suggesting a strong market condition [4].