瑞郎急挫避险狂潮政策迷雾交织

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate has experienced a significant decline, with a daily drop of 2.45% and a cumulative decrease of over 10.6% since October's high of 0.9010, marking the largest monthly drop in 2023. The market is influenced by two opposing forces: the safe-haven demand for CHF due to escalating Middle East tensions and the support for USD from the Federal Reserve's high-interest rate policy. Upcoming Swiss GDP and inflation data are seen as crucial to breaking this stalemate [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The volatility in the USD/CHF exchange rate is primarily driven by the contrasting monetary policies of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Federal Reserve. The SNB is facing pressure to reconsider its zero interest rate policy due to a 0.5% decline in Q3 GDP and a 2.1% year-on-year drop in industrial output, which has sparked discussions about potentially reintroducing negative interest rates [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve, while maintaining a stance on inflation not meeting targets, has seen the USD index drop from a high of 105 to around 102, influenced by the safe-haven demand for CHF [2]. Group 2: Safe-Haven Demand for CHF - The CHF has gained popularity as a safe-haven asset, even surpassing gold in attractiveness, with the largest CHF ETF seeing a 15% increase in holdings over the past week. However, the recent trade agreement reducing tariffs on Swiss goods is only expected to offset one-third of the export losses caused by CHF appreciation [3]. - The SNB's cautious approach to negative interest rates is evident, as it has set a dual threshold of "economic recession + deflation" before considering such measures, which has temporarily restrained CHF's rapid appreciation [2][3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of USD/CHF - Technically, the USD/CHF has broken below previous support levels, indicating a "guillotine" pattern, with current trading around 0.8049 in a downtrend. Key resistance levels are identified between 0.8150 and 0.8180, while support is centered around the psychological level of 0.8000 [4]. - Indicators suggest an "oversold rebound" signal, with the exchange rate deviating significantly from the 20-day moving average and the RSI indicator at a three-year low, indicating a high probability of a rebound in the near term [4].