美国9月非农数据公布 降息预期小幅升温

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness with a notable increase in unemployment rate despite job additions, indicating higher economic downturn risks [1] Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 48-day delay in the release of September non-farm payroll data due to the government shutdown [1] - September non-farm employment added 110,000 jobs, which is better than expected, but the unemployment rate reached 4.4%, marking a recent high [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the employment data release, the Nasdaq index experienced a nearly 5% fluctuation, closing down 2.15%, while the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 3.26% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December increased slightly to 39.1%, up from 30.1% the previous day [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite recent market volatility influenced by global conditions and a slower pace of Fed rate cuts, the initiation of a rate cut cycle is expected to improve global liquidity [1] - Core assets such as the Hang Seng Technology Index and Hang Seng Internet Index, which are historically undervalued, are likely to benefit from AI narratives and capital inflows [1] - It is recommended to pay attention to the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) and the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330), both of which are the largest in their respective sectors and focus on leading companies in AI and technology [1]