Oracle(US:ORCL) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-21 03:30Group 1 - Oracle is becoming a barometer for AI risk in the credit market, having borrowed hundreds of billions and tying its fate to the AI boom [1] - The cost of Oracle's credit default swaps (CDS) has doubled in recent months, reaching approximately 1.11% on November 19, which translates to about $111,000 for insuring $10 million in principal [1] - CDS trading volume for Oracle surged to around $5 billion over seven weeks, compared to just over $200 million in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - Despite concerns, few believe Oracle will default soon, but a loss of investor confidence in AI could lead to further increases in Oracle's CDS prices, benefiting those who bought the derivatives [2] - Oracle is one of the largest investors in AI, participating in key initiatives like the "Stargate" project alongside OpenAI and SoftBank [2] - Morgan Stanley analysts project Oracle's adjusted net debt will more than double to approximately $290 billion by fiscal year 2028, recommending investors buy its five-year CDS and bonds [2]