国投证券：新疆/西藏需求景气度提升 供给侧优化民爆龙头受益

Core Viewpoint - The domestic civil explosives industry in China is experiencing significant supply-side optimization, leading to increased industry concentration and improved competitive landscape due to strict control over new production capacity [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The civil explosives industry is expected to stabilize, with production value projected at 41.695 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.50%, while sales value is estimated at 41.142 billion yuan, down 5.26% year-on-year [1]. - Industry profit is anticipated to grow, reaching 9.639 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.04% [1]. - The integration of civil explosives is effectively advancing, with the share of blasting service revenue in main business income rising from 29.31% in 2016 to 78.35% in 2024 [1]. Group 2: Supply-Side Dynamics - The number of production enterprises in the civil explosives industry has decreased from over 400 in 2005 to fewer than 50 by 2025, indicating a significant increase in industry concentration [2]. - The top 10 enterprises' production value share is projected to rise from 41% in 2018 to 62.47% in 2024 [2]. - The demand for civil explosives is shifting from the eastern coastal regions to the resource-rich central and western regions, with several companies expanding their capacity in these areas through mergers and acquisitions [2]. Group 3: Demand-Side Trends - Investment in the mining industry is continuously growing, with fixed asset investment in mining expected to show positive year-on-year growth from 2021 to 2024, particularly in coal and non-ferrous metal mining [3]. - In 2023, approximately 70% of industrial explosives are used in coal, metal, and non-metal mining, with respective usage shares of about 30.4%, 24.7%, and 19.7% [3]. - The industrial explosive production in Xinjiang and Tibet is experiencing high growth rates, driven by coal mining, non-ferrous metal projects, and major infrastructure developments [3].