智通财经网·2025-11-21 03:35Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Tabo (06110), highlighting its position as a leading sports retail platform in China, despite short-term fluctuations in its main brand Nike, while Adidas shows strong growth momentum [1] Business Overview - Tabo is the largest sports retail and service platform in China, with partnerships including Nike, Adidas, Puma, Converse, and Vans. The company anticipates a revenue decline of 7% and 6% year-on-year for FY2025 and FY2026H1, respectively, reaching 27 billion and 12.3 billion RMB. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to drop by 42% and 10% to 1.29 billion and 790 million RMB for the same periods [1][2] Brand Performance - Revenue from main brands decreased by 4.8% to 10.8 billion RMB in FY2026H1, accounting for 88% of total revenue. Adidas has consistently outperformed expectations, with a 8% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025 on a currency-neutral basis, while Nike's performance has been more volatile [2] Retail Operations - Tabo has optimized its offline stores based on brand characteristics, with 1,056 self-operated stores over 300 square meters as of FY2023, representing 16.1% of total stores. The company is shifting its "big store strategy" to a more tailored approach to enhance store efficiency. The company has also expanded its private domain and live e-commerce initiatives, with over 3,600 mini-program stores by FY2026H1, and e-commerce sales expected to account for around 40% of total sales [3] Membership and Digitalization - Tabo has achieved a cumulative registered membership of 89.1 million by FY2025H1, with ongoing efforts to enhance user engagement and conversion rates. The company's digital transformation strategy, initiated in 2019, focuses on empowering frontline employees, optimizing store operations, and improving product management [3] Mid-term Trends - The release schedule for new Nike products is expected to improve in FY2027, potentially benefiting Tabo's revenue and profit margins. Adidas continues to perform well, while Nike's performance in the Greater China region is recovering. The company anticipates that FY2026 profits will remain stable, with a positive outlook for FY2027 as new Nike products are launched [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Since its IPO in 2019, Tabo has maintained a cumulative dividend payout ratio of 107.3%. As of FY2026H1, the company holds 2.54 billion RMB in cash and cash equivalents. The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.297 billion, 1.481 billion, and 1.666 billion RMB for FY2026 to FY2028, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 14.6 times and a dividend yield of 7%. The "buy" rating is maintained [5]