Core Viewpoint - The current gold price is experiencing a downward trend, trading around $4050 per ounce, reflecting a significant drop from its recent high of $4110.03, and a 7% decrease from the historical peak of $4381.29 reached in October. However, gold prices have still shown a remarkable 55% increase since 2025 [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed "serious divisions" among policymakers, with the better-than-expected September non-farm payroll data supporting the rationale for slowing the current easing pace [2]. - The September non-farm payroll report showed an unexpected increase of 69,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021, indicating potential challenges for the labor market [2]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 60.2% probability of maintaining current interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with a 39.8% chance of a rate cut, reflecting a shift in market expectations [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $4240 and near the historical high of $4381, which may impact short-term price movements [4][5]. - Support levels are established at $4041 (20-day moving average), $4000 (psychological level), and $3886 (near the low point from October 28), which are crucial for maintaining price stability [6][7]. - Despite short-term pressures, gold's performance remains driven by multiple macro factors, indicating strong upward momentum even in a hawkish Fed environment [7].
美联储陷“数据真空”决策困境 金价4000关口命悬一线
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-21 04:18