智通财经网·2025-11-21 05:53Core Insights - The analysis indicates a strong performance in the lithium battery market for electric vehicles in October, with a year-on-year production increase of 49% to 171 GWh, and a cumulative production of 1,293 GWh for the first ten months of 2025, reflecting a 45% growth [1][3][12] - The market is witnessing a shift in battery types, with the proportion of ternary batteries in production expected to stabilize at 40% and lithium iron phosphate batteries at 46% by 2025 [1][4] - The production of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is also robust, with 1.61 million qualified products produced in October, marking a 25% increase year-on-year, and a total of 11.2 million NEVs produced from January to October, up 29% [1][12] Battery Production and Sales - In October 2025, the production of power batteries reached 170.6 GWh, with a significant increase in the production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries, which saw growth rates of 49% and 49% respectively [3][4] - The battery installation rate for power batteries is projected to remain at 45% in 2025, with the installation rates for ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries both at 49% in October 2025, indicating a peak in market activity for the year [4][5] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is dominated by CATL and BYD, with CATL's market share declining to 43.5% in Q4 2025, while BYD's share fluctuated from 15% in 2020 to 21.5% in Q4 2025 [2][20] - The demand for electric vehicle batteries continues to grow, with pure electric passenger vehicles expected to see a 58% increase in battery demand in 2025, while plug-in hybrid vehicles are projected to grow by 38% [7][8] Trends in Battery Types - The energy density of main batteries for pure electric vehicles is currently between 125 to 160 Wh/kg, with a notable increase in the share of batteries in the 140 to 160 Wh/kg range, which reached 38% in Q4 2025, up 14 percentage points year-on-year [18][19] - The share of batteries with energy density above 160 Wh/kg has decreased to 9% in Q4 2025 from 13% in 2024, primarily due to the substitution of ternary batteries by lithium iron phosphate batteries [19] Production Capacity and Supply Chain - The number of battery manufacturers has remained relatively stable, with 33 companies reported in October 2025, indicating a slow pace of technological advancement in the battery market [13][14] - The future of the battery industry may see significant changes as vehicle manufacturers increasingly collaborate with battery producers, enhancing their control over the supply chain [16]