钢铁ETF（515210）跌超3%，行业供需格局改善，把握回调布局机会

Core Viewpoint - The steel ETF (515210) has dropped over 3%, but the industry is expected to improve its supply-demand dynamics, presenting a potential opportunity for investment during the pullback [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - By the third quarter of 2025, the steel industry's profitability is projected to improve significantly, with total profits of key enterprises expected to increase by 1.9 times year-on-year [1] - The sales profit margin is anticipated to rise by 1.39 percentage points to 2.1% [1] - The supply side is experiencing ongoing anti-involution policies, with the "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" proposing precise control of capacity and output, prohibiting new capacity additions, and aiming for an average annual growth of 4% in industry value added [1] Group 2: Demand Structure - The demand structure is continuously optimizing, with the proportion of steel used in manufacturing increasing from 42% in 2020 to 50% in 2024 [1] - High-end products, such as silicon steel, have seen a production increase of 48% compared to 2020, with high magnetic orientation silicon steel's share rising to 68% [1] - The ordinary steel sector has performed notably, accounting for 58.38% of total profits [1] Group 3: Supply and Export Dynamics - The crude steel output has decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, while apparent consumption has fallen by 5.7% [1] - Exports have increased by 9.2% year-on-year, leading to a significant rise in net export volume [1] - The increase in fund holdings by 22.44% year-on-year indicates a growing market focus on leading enterprises [1] Group 4: ETF Overview - The steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index (930606), which selects securities from listed companies in the steel industry to reflect the overall performance of the sector [1] - The index includes major subfields such as ordinary steel and special steel, exhibiting significant cyclical characteristics closely related to macroeconomic cycles [1]