基本面逐步改善 工业硅期货下行空间或相对有限

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and a current decline of 2.17% observed in the main contract [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Guotai Junan Futures indicates that there are no significant positive drivers in the industrial silicon fundamentals, with a gradual improvement in the basic situation. However, the expectation of weak supply and demand cannot support a sustained price increase. The impact of the planned production cuts by organic silicon manufacturers starting in December is a key factor to monitor [1]. - Guotai Junan Futures also notes that the increase in hedging positions on the upper side of the market may affect price movements [1]. Market Price Movements - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the industrial silicon futures market is currently showing weak performance, with the main contract opening at 9085.0 yuan/ton and fluctuating between a high of 9145.0 yuan and a low of 8950.0 yuan [1]. - The current spot price for industrial silicon has seen a slight increase of 100 yuan/ton, while the downstream organic silicon DMC price remains stable at 13100 yuan/ton [1]. Future Outlook - Guotai Junan Futures suggests that the short-term outlook for industrial silicon is a technical correction, but there is potential for price recovery due to expectations of pricing adjustments in downstream polysilicon and organic silicon [1]. - Nanhua Futures believes that the support for industrial silicon prices is relatively strong, indicating limited downside potential. They recommend investors to seize opportunities for low-cost positioning and focus on the value of long positions in the distant months [2].