Sugar Prices Erase Early Gains as Crude Oil Tumbles

Core Insights - Sugar prices have declined from recent highs due to a drop in crude oil prices, leading to increased sugar production as mills shift focus from ethanol to sugar [2][4][6] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has revised its forecast to indicate a sugar surplus in 2025-26, driven by increased production in key countries [4][6] - India's food ministry's decision to limit sugar exports for the 2025/26 season provides some support to sugar prices despite the overall bearish outlook [5] Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.04 (-0.27%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -0.30 (-0.07%) [1] - Sugar prices fell back from 3.5-week highs after crude oil prices tumbled more than -2%, prompting long liquidation in sugar futures [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The ISO forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, following a deficit of 2.916 million MT in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by +3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26 [4] Group 3: Export Regulations - India's food ministry will allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, down from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, following a quota system introduced in 2022/23 [5]