中国柴油卡车正转向电动化或将重塑全球燃料需求

Core Insights - China is rapidly transitioning from diesel heavy trucks to electric heavy trucks, which may reshape global fuel demand and the heavy truck transportation industry [1][2] - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks in China is projected to reach 22.34% by mid-2025, up from 9.21% in the first half of the previous year [1] - Electric heavy trucks are expected to account for nearly 46% of new heavy truck sales this year, rising to 60% next year according to BMI [1] Industry Impact - Heavy trucks are crucial for the modern economy but are also significant sources of carbon emissions, with road freight accounting for one-third of total transport sector emissions in 2019 [1] - The transition to electric heavy trucks is seen as a challenge due to their lower payload capacity compared to diesel trucks, but supporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) argue that gas trucks are a cleaner alternative until electric technology matures [1] - Analysts suggest that China's diesel consumption may decline faster than expected, as electric heavy trucks are currently more popular than gas trucks in the market [1] Market Dynamics - As of May 2025, the sales share of new energy heavy trucks in China has surpassed that of gas trucks for five consecutive months [2] - Despite electric heavy trucks being two to three times more expensive than diesel trucks and about 18% more than gas trucks, their higher energy efficiency and lower operating costs could save owners 10% to 26% over the vehicle's lifecycle [2] - The use of electric heavy trucks is estimated to reduce China's oil demand by one million barrels per day [2] - China has become the largest passenger car exporter and is now focusing on the global electric heavy truck market, with exports to the Middle East, North Africa, and Latin America growing approximately 73% and 46% annually from 2021 to 2023 [2]