库存端处于偏高水平 烧碱期货主力合约弱势震荡

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the weak performance of caustic soda futures, with the primary contract experiencing a decline of nearly 1% and trading at 2243.0 yuan, down 0.93% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Caustic soda supply and demand are balanced, with no significant driving forces, and inventory levels are slightly high. The end of the concentrated maintenance season suggests a mid-term increase in both supply and demand, but the overall conflict remains manageable [2]. - Current spot prices for caustic soda are around 2375 yuan, indicating a loose market. The cost of production is estimated to be between 2050 and 2350 yuan, which is a critical support level to monitor [2][3]. Group 2: Inventory and Pricing Pressure - Most production facilities have completed maintenance, leading to a weak price for liquid caustic soda, while liquid chlorine prices remain relatively high. The profit margins for electrolysis units are at lower levels compared to previous years [3]. - The introduction of new production capacities is expected to exert further supply pressure, with a focus on the sustainability of liquid chlorine inventory reduction and downstream demand. Current conditions indicate good demand for liquid chlorine from downstream sectors [3]. - The aluminum oxide industry is facing increased losses, leading to a marginal decline in production and operating capacity, which contributes to high inventory levels. However, there is a lack of substantial reduction in production despite the pressures [3].