智通财经网·2025-11-21 07:16Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) maintains a "Buy" rating with Q3 2025 performance slightly exceeding expectations, net revenue increased by 16% year-on-year to 18.4 billion RMB, and operating profit margin stable at 30% [1] Financial Performance - Q3 performance slightly exceeded expectations with net revenue of 18.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%, surpassing the bank/market expectations by 2%/1% [1] - Accommodation bookings increased by 14% year-on-year, while transportation ticketing revenue rose by 9%, accounting for 44% and 34% of total revenue respectively, contributing 51% and 27% to revenue growth [1] - Gross profit increased by 15% year-on-year with a gross margin of 82%, remaining stable both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] - Operating profit reached 5.6 billion RMB, an 11% year-on-year increase, exceeding bank/market expectations by 4%/5%, with an operating profit margin rising to 30% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.2 billion RMB, significantly above market expectations of 5.6 billion RMB, primarily reflecting gains from the disposal of overseas investment in MakeMyTrip [1] Operational Data - Domestic hotel ADR and ticket prices saw a slight decline in Q3, with domestic tourism revenue per capita increasing by 5% and total visits up by 13% year-on-year [2] - Outbound hotel and ticket bookings increased by 20% year-on-year, and 40% compared to Q3 2019, indicating a recovery faster than the industry average [2] - International OTA hotel and ticket bookings maintained over 60% year-on-year growth, with the Asia-Pacific market being the largest [2] - Inbound tourism bookings more than doubled year-on-year [2] - TripGenie has expanded to over 200 countries, with user growth exceeding 200% year-on-year [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - During the National Day holiday, outbound hotel and ticket bookings increased by 30%, with strong growth in Europe and stable hotel ADR [3] - Q4 total revenue is expected to grow by 16% year-on-year, with accommodation and transportation bookings projected to increase by 15% and 12% respectively [3] - For 2026, total revenue is forecasted to grow by 14%, with adjusted net profit expected to reach 20.8 billion RMB and a profit margin of 29.6% [3] - The bank is optimistic about the company's long-term profit margin exceeding 30%, driven by supply advantages and improved profitability in overseas operations [3] - The valuation benchmark has been adjusted to 2026, with a target price raised to 693 HKD (9961.HK) / 89 USD (TCOM.US) based on a 20x 2026 P/E ratio [3] - The company continues to invest in AI and overseas markets while maintaining good ROI and financial discipline [3]