本月开始在产蛋鸡存栏量将开启下降态势 预计明年12月达到明显低点

Core Viewpoint - The egg prices are expected to remain low in the short term, with a potential for a slight rebound starting in July 2026, influenced by the ongoing culling of laying hens and seasonal demand fluctuations [5]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - As of November 13, 2025, the average price of eggs in major production areas is 3.08 yuan per jin, while the feed cost per jin is 3.00 yuan, leading to a negative profit margin for producers [1]. - The average profit per jin of eggs has decreased to -0.20 yuan in November, down from -0.12 yuan earlier in the second half of the year, indicating worsening financial conditions for producers [1]. Group 2: Future Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ongoing increase in the culling of laying hens is expected to lead to a gradual decline in the number of laying hens, with projections indicating a significant drop to approximately 1.21 billion hens by December 2026 [3]. - A tightening supply, coupled with stable consumer demand, is anticipated to fundamentally alter the market dynamics, potentially alleviating the current weak price conditions for eggs and laying hens [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The market is expected to transition from a phase of prolonged low prices to a phase of slight price recovery, with the turning point for egg prices likely occurring around July 2026 [5]. - The timing and extent of the price rebound will depend on the concentration and duration of the culling process; a rapid and concentrated culling could lead to a quicker and more substantial price recovery, while a slow and dispersed culling would result in a prolonged recovery period [5].