港股“子”曰｜情绪冰点 有人撤退有人抄底

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, has experienced significant declines, with a maximum drop of 20% since early October, indicating a market sentiment close to a freezing point [1][4]. Market Analysis - The recent downturn in the Hong Kong stock market can be divided into three phases: 1. A rapid decline from October 2 to October 17, where the Hang Seng Technology Index fell approximately 15%, primarily due to profit-taking after a period of high market sentiment [3]. 2. A consolidation phase from October 18 to November 13, characterized by fluctuations and attempts to establish support levels [3]. 3. A sharp sell-off from November 14 to the present, driven by concerns over a potential AI bubble in global capital markets, despite Nvidia's strong performance [3][4]. Investor Behavior - Current market sentiment is at a critical juncture, with many short-sellers likely having reduced their positions significantly. As the market has declined, the potential for further short-selling pressure diminishes [4]. - A segment of investors remains committed to the Hong Kong market, with some viewing the current price levels as an opportunity for bottom-fishing, supported by substantial inflows from southbound capital [5][6]. Capital Inflows - Southbound capital has been actively buying Hong Kong stocks, with net purchases of HKD 12.8 billion on November 14 and nearly HKD 16 billion recently, indicating strong buying interest [5]. - Cross-border ETFs have also seen significant inflows, with over HKD 8 billion into Hang Seng Technology Index-related products and more than HKD 1.4 billion into internet-related products in the past month, reflecting a trend towards convenient investment channels [6]. Valuation Perspective - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Internet Index stands at around 21 times PE, which is considered low compared to historical averages, suggesting a potential "valuation trough" for investors [6].