Fed rate cut odds collapse 60% after missing jobs data

Core Viewpoint - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has significantly decreased from nearly 90% to about 30% following the absence of the October jobs report due to a government shutdown [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The prediction market currently indicates a 66% chance of "No change" in rates and a 32% chance of a 25 basis points decrease, reflecting a steep repricing since the government shutdown began [2]. - Just three weeks prior, the 25-bps cut contract was trading above 90%, indicating strong trader confidence in a rate cut before year-end [2]. Group 2: Impact of Missing Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that the full October jobs report will not be released, merging it with the November report, which is now delayed to December 16, after the Fed's December 9-10 meeting [3]. - The lack of fresh employment data has led traders to believe that the Fed is more likely to maintain current rates, with one participant stating, "No Data, No Cut" [4]. Group 3: Trading Volume - The Fed contract has recorded over $119 million in trading volume, making it one of Polymarket's most actively traded macro markets this quarter [5].