Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-21 08:36Core Insights - The commercialization of sodium batteries is accelerating, transitioning from demonstration applications to large-scale commercial deployment, with industry experts predicting 2026 as the starting point for true commercialization and large-scale application [1] - By 2035, the expected market share ratio of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries to sodium batteries is projected to be 4:6, with LFP demand reaching 15 million tons and sodium battery cathode material demand reaching 20 million tons [1] Industry Trends - Sodium batteries are gaining traction as a promising emerging technology, with improvements in product performance and quality, and expanding applications in energy storage, low-speed electric vehicles, and backup power for communication stations [1][2] - Industry leaders like CATL have highlighted the advantages of sodium batteries, including better low-temperature performance, lower carbon footprint, and enhanced safety, making them suitable for various applications [2][3] Company Developments - Rongbai Technology plans to establish a 6,000-ton pilot line in Xiantao by 2025 and aims to achieve a sodium battery production capacity of 50,000 tons by 2026 through renovations and new production lines [3] - CATL has launched the world's first large-scale production sodium battery, achieving an energy density of 175 Wh/kg and a range of over 500 kilometers, targeting over 40% of the domestic passenger vehicle market [3] - BYD has announced the production of the world's first sodium-ion battery production line in Xining, while EVE Energy has successfully integrated its first large-capacity sodium-ion battery energy storage system into commercial operation [3] Market Data - Research indicates that global sodium battery shipments are expected to reach 3.7 GWh in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 259%, with total shipments for 2025 projected to exceed 23.1 GWh, a growth of 542.7% [4] - The compound annual growth rate for global sodium battery shipments from 2021 to 2024 is estimated at 195.2% [4] Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that sodium battery market share could surpass that of lithium iron phosphate batteries within ten years, although achieving this will require overcoming several challenges, including energy density and cost issues [5][6] - The relationship between sodium and lithium batteries is viewed as complementary rather than competitive, with both technologies expected to coexist and cater to different market segments [6][7] - There is optimism that sodium battery costs could be halved within the next two to three years, supported by government policies aimed at advancing high-performance materials and large-scale sodium battery systems [7]